Peak in Mumbai around Jan 6-13; deaths may be half of Delta toll, say scientists – Times of India

MUMBAI: Covid cases in the Omicron wave in the Mumbai could peak in the next 10 days, while fatalities – likely to be 30%-50% of the 5,232 deaths during the second Delta wave – could be the highest in February first week, according to scientists from the prestigious Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR).
“We should see the peak in cases between January 6 and 13,” said professor Sandeep Juneja from TIFR’s school of technology and computer science. “It will take another month for cases to come down while peak fatalities will be seen around the first week of February,” he said.
On Tuesday, the Mumbai daily tally breached the 10,000-mark – a milestone crossed only thrice during the Delta wave – and Juneja said the Omicron wave could break the 16,000-plus-mark daily. BMC additional municipal commissioner Suresh Kakani said BMC’s internal projections estimate a peak around mid-January with cases touching 20,000. The study, that is based on data from South Africa and UK, expects deaths to be 30% to 50% of the second wave, and hospitalisation to be “around 50-70% of the peak seen under Delta”.