Mumbai News

Mumbai cases will plateau at 35,000 by June 3: Studies – Mumbai Mirror

Mumbai University’s School of Economics has published two studies that predict the number of Covid-19 cases in Mumbai will plateau at around 35,000 by June 3 in the best-case scenario, and at 40,000 in the worst case. The studies, which use logistic rather than epidemiological modelling, also predict that the number of cases across Maharashtra will peak at around 50,000 by May 21.

Written by Neeraj Hatekar from Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy and Pallavi Belhekar from Smt MMK College of Commerce and Economics, Bandra, the two papers are titled ‘The Covid -19 Situation in Maharashtra: It is Definitely Getting Better’ and ‘The End is Near: Corona Cases Stabilising in Most Indian States’ and are based on data gathered from across India and the world for over a month. The university’s website has also launched a Covid-19 lab ( with updated forecasts of the number of Covid-19 cases across India and the world.

Click here for latest updates on the coronavirus pandemic

Hatekar and Belhekar wrote in the first paper, “In our experience, from April 17 to April 27, doubling rates in some [Mumbai] wards went up, but those in most wards actually declined. Hence, we may not even reach the 40,000 value in the first week of June. In fact, we expect new cases to stop well before that. We expect Mumbai cases to stabilise at around 35,000. But that is the best-case scenario.” To arrive at their prediction, the two plotted the relationship between the number of cases in each ward and the doubling period for that ward.Using the logistic model, which is “generally used to model the growth of a colony of microorganisms in a restrictive environment” the studies estimate the “carrying capacity” – the number at which cases will stop increasing -of each state, based on its doubling rate. It predicts that Maharashtra’s carrying capacity is 50,000 cases by May 21.

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The studies also noted that a significant factor in the control of infections in India has been the fact that the pandemic is concentrated in a few urban clusters. “For example, 56% of total cases in Madhya Pradesh come from the two cities of Bhopal and Indore. In Maharashtra, 55% of cases come from Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nasik and Nagpur. In Rajasthan, 41% of total cases come from Jaipur, Jodhpur and Bhagalpur. In Gujrat, 59% come from three cities.”

The authors thus cautioned about the possibility of a second round of infections from migrant workers who are returning to their homes. “This risks spreading the virus to rural areas of poorer states, where it will be very difficult to control. In the cities, the number of cases will go down but we fear it could increase in rural areas,” Hatekar said.

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Mumbai prepares for the worst

While the BMC had differed with the Centre’s projection of a peak of 75,000 for Mumbai, it has now begun to prepare for the eventuality.

Mumbai in Lockdown 2.0: Slower pace to tackle Covid19 but essential supplies working

Lockdown Violators

For Mumbai and Maharashtra, it came as no surprise that the lockdown was extended. The city’s numbers have been on the rise and even cases from Pune continue to add to the tally. Maharashtra still has the highest number of COVID-19 cases across all states in the country. Lockdown 2.0 will see some exemptions but only in those areas which are not containment zones. The exemptions will kick off from April 20 and are expected to bring in huge relief for economic activities that have virtually been in shutdown-mode since March 24, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the initial 21-day lockdown for the country. Photo by Sachin Haralkar/ MMCL

Red Zone Mumbai

On Sunday, the Health Ministry said that 1,334 fresh COVID-19 cases reported since Saturday with 27 deaths in last 24 hours. ICMR said India had conducted a total of 3,86,791 tests so far. “Yesterday 37,173 tests were done, out of these 29,287 tests were done in labs of ICMR network. 7,886 tested in private sector labs.,” Raman Gangakhedkar of the ICMR. Mumbai is part of the list of 170 hotspots or red zones across the country. Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

Maharashtra CM appeals to migrants

Addressing the concerns of migrant workers, Uddhav Thackeray spoke in Hindi, saying, “We are working to start some economic activities. Come forward to join these. I want to assure you that the Maharashtra government will ensure you reach home. Your family is scared and so are you. Tell them not to worry about you. We are going to take care of you. These are tough times, but they won’t last too long.” Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

Flamingos Take Flight in Lockdown

With the extended lockdown forcing people to stay indoors, the surrounding areas of Mumbai are seeing a sharp rise in the number of flamingos, especially in Navi Mumbai, Uran, Thane Creek, Panju Island and Vasai. Mumbai has a few sites where lesser and greater flamingo species can be seen during this time of the year. With people staying at home during the lockdown, flamingos are taking flight. Their younger ones are now also picking up the pink colour that one associates with flamingos. These birds will migrate to Kutch for breeding. Photo by Raju Shelar/ MMCL

Nehrunagar: Lockdown violators penalised

From sit-ups to yoga, police in Maharashtra have tried a number of innovative methods to take on lockdown violators – those who don’t have a convincing reason to explain why they are out of the streets during the lockdown. In some cases, police also made people hold placards with lines like – ‘I’m an educated citizen but I do not follow government orders.’ In some cases, police have also used their lathis against violators. This photo was taken on April 18 in Nehrunagar. Photo by Sachin Haralkar/ MMCL

Sanitiser mist installed in Jogeshwari

On April 20, Maharashtra will complete six weeks of being in the lockdown. And though movement of people is still restricted, some economic activities will be allowed to resume in those areas which are green zones – where there is not even a single case of Covid-19. In Mumbai, though the lockdown will continue as it is among the red zones. This sanitiser mist was installed in a slum in Jogeshwari. Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

Time to join the Mask Force

A couple of days ago, the BCCI released a video with top cricketers promoting the idea of home-made masks. So captain Virat Kohli’s mask has V written on it, Rahul Dravid’s mask has, what else – a wall on it. Bhajji paaji decided to go with a Sikh turban on his mask while BCCI chief Sourav Ganguly has ‘Dada’ on his mask. Sachin Tendulkar chose to go with the number ’10’ on his mask and Hitman Rohit Sharma has also stayed true to his nickname. The video got a big thumbs up from the Prime Minister. This photo was taken in Nehrunagar where a vendor was selling masks for Rs 10 apiece. Photo by Sachin Haralkar/ MMCL

Uttan: Waiting for the tide to turn

Fro fishermen, this is peak season. But the lockdown can with an unexpected crisis for them. For many days, they did not get permission to take their boats out to sea. Then with the lockdown, there was the additional worry of how they would get their catch to the markets. Getting diesel was a problem, even ice to store the fish was an issue. In this uncertainty, they were left high and dry. Now, as per the new exemptions listed in the MHA circular, fishing will be allowed. These boats at the Uttam fishing village that have been waiting for days may finally start seeing the tide turn in their favour again. Otherwise the entire fishing community is staring at massive losses. Photo by Nilesh Wairkar/ MMCL

Good news in the lockdown

In a heartwarming development, two women who had tested positive for the novel coronavirus delivered healthy babies at Mumbai’s BYL Nair hospital on Sunday. The doctor said that both the children have tested negative for the deadly virus but could not be breastfed as there are chances of virus transmission. Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

City slows down

A residential society in Agripada has registered an FIR against a couple for allegedly allowing house-helps to enter their flat during the nationwide lockdown despite the society’s ban on the entry of outsiders. The couple allegedly ignored several warnings by the housing society and insisted on allowing the househelps to enter the society campus every day. Photo by Sachin Haralkar/ MMCL

City’s largest Covid19 facility at Nair hospital

Mumbai is finally getting an exclusive Covid-19 hospital it deserves. By Monday, Nair Hospital – one of the biggest BMC-run hospitals – will start transferring all its non-coronavirus patients to its other facilities, making way for the city’s largest Covid-19 facility, twice the size of Kasturba and SevenHills put together. Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

Essential services continue

Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray on Sunday claimed that the state has conducted a total of 66,896 tests for Covid-19. He reiterated that people should come forward and get the Covid-19 tests done if there are symptoms. “Doctors have told us that many are coming to us when they are already quite serious. There have been cases where they have passed away even before their results have been received,” he said. He requested people to not hide symptoms. “If you have fever, cold, cough, let us know. Don’t be afraid, don’t run away from it, come to these clinics we have set up.” Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

26 sailors test positive in Mumbai

26 sailors were placed in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19 at Mumbai on Saturday. They belong to INS Angre, a shore establishment. There has so far not been a single case of Covid-19 onboard any ship, submarine or air station of the Indian Navy. The detection of these Covid-19 cases is a result of meticulous contact tracing and aggressive screening/testing carried out by Western Naval Command after one sailor tested positive on April 7. After the sailor was tested positive for Covid-19, the entire premises of the Unit have been sealed off. Containment zones and buffer areas have been designated and frequent disinfection continues to be carried out as per protocol to contain spread by breaking the chain of transmission. Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL

People are indoors, birds are free

We are sure you have seen plenty of posts on social media talking about how nature is healing as humans stay indoors. There are some truths to that for sure. For starters, pollution levels are down in many Indian cities. Viral photos of India Gate with a beautiful blue sky in the background are the talk of Twitterati that is aghast to see the grey tone of another photo of the monument taken in November 2019 where the India Gate is barely visible. Flamingos are in all their pink glory at Mumbai’s many sites, including Seawoods and even Wadala. Photo by Satyajit Desai/ MMCL